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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments      07/19 06:15
   Traders To Position Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report Friday

   Cattle futures took it on the chin Thursday, declining more than $2.00. The
pressure came from Northern dressed cattle trading $2.00 lower. Hogs closed
mixed, able to maintain the recent gains supported by cash and cutouts.

Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst

   Cattle: Lower         Futures: Mixed       Live Equiv: $231.10 -$0.78*

   Hogs: Lower          Futures: Higher      Lean Equiv: $106.16 +$0.93**

   *Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer
revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent
changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)

   ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Cattle futures reversed Thursday, eliminating the gains of Wednesday and
then some. The optimism for higher cattle trade evaporated when Northern
dressed cattle traded at $2.00 lower. It may have been the fear of a bearish
Cattle on Feed report or the concern over demand that increased the desire for
feedlots to sell. The idea that holding for higher cash may not pay off as
packers have not been aggressive and yet they have been able to purchase cattle
ahead. Boxed beef prices were mixed Thursday with choice down $2.01 and select
up $1.02. Weekly export sales were good at 15,400 metric tons (mt) but had
little influence on the market. The Cattle on Feed report will be released
after the close. The estimates are for cattle on feed on July 1 to be 101.2%
compared to a year ago with a range of 100.1% to 102.0%. Placements in June are
estimated at 97.0% with a range of 89.9% to 102.0%. Cattle marketed in June are
estimated at 91.8% with a range of 90.0% to 94.5%.
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